This file was prepared for electronic distribution by the inforM staff. Questions or comments should be directed to inform-editor@umail.umd.edu. WHERE MEN AND WOMEN ARE IN THE WORKFORCE As of the end of FY 1990, there were over 1,500,000 people employed in full-time, permanent, white-collar jobs in the executive branch of the Federal Government. Of these employees, about 735,000, or 48 percent, were women. Federal white collar positions are grouped into specific job series within five broad occupational categories, and by grade level. This section discusses the distribution of men and women by occupational category and grade, and how the distribution changed from 1974 to 1990. Distribution by Occupational Category Ihe five occupational categories into which Federal occupations are grouped are Professional, Administrative, Technical, Clerical, and Other, otherwise known as PATCO categories. Figure 1 shows the percentage of the workforce in each of these categories for 1974 and 1990. The 1990 data show that over half of Federal employees are designated as Professional or Administrative, about one-fifth of employees are in clerical occupations, another fifth are in Technical occupations, and less than 3 percent are in Other occupations. Since 1974 there has been an increase in the percentage of ernployees in Professional and Administrative occupations and a dramatic decline in the percentage of employees in Clerical occupations. The proportion of employees in Technical and Other jobs has remained about the same. In order to understand the current potential of women to rise in the ranks, we must look at how women are distributed by PATCO category. This is important, because generally only those who are in occupations classified as Professional or Administrative become managers or executives. With few exceptions, unless they can qualify for, and be selected for, a Professional or Administrative job, employees in Technical, Clerical, or Other occupations will not typically advance beyond the GS-12 level. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Figure 1: Distribution of Federal Workforce by PATCO Category, 1974 and 1990 1974 1990 Professional 20 25 Administrative 25 31 Technical 22 22 Clerical 30 19 Other 3 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Figure 2 shows the percentage of jobs in each PATCO category held by women in 1974 and 1990. Women have doubled their representation in Professional and Administrative categories, but nearly two thirds of these positions are still held by men. Women's overwhelming domination of Clerical jobs has not changed since 1974. Appendix 2 shows the percentage of jobs by PATCO category held by women for the 22 largest agencies. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Figure 2: Representation of Women Within Each PATCO Category, 1974 and 1990 1974 1990 Professional 18 31 Administrative 17 38 Technical 35 54 Clerical 84 86 Other 2 12 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Distribution by Grade Level In 1974, Federal jobs were still classified in the General Schedule into 18 grade levels. The Civil Service Reform Act of 1978 created the SES, covering most of the managerial and policymaking positions which had previously been held by employees in grades GS 16-18. Flgure 3 shows how Federal employees were distributed by grade- level grouping in 1974 and 1990. There has been an increase in the percentage of employees in higher level jobs and a decrease in the percentage of employees in lower level jobs. In 1974, one fifth of the workforce was in grades GS 1-4; in 1990 the share was only one-tenth. The percentage of employees in grades GS 13-15[13] increased from 14 percent in 1974 to 18 percent in 1990, but the percentage of employees in the Senior Executive Service and equivalent jobs has remained at no more than .5 percent. Although women continue to dominate lower graded jobs, there has a]so been a marked increase in the percentage of mid- and upper-level jobs held by women. Figure 4 shows the percentage of jobs in each grade level group held by women in 1974 and 1990. Women continue to hold three quarters of GS 1-4 jobs. The percentage of women in grades 9-12 doubled, going from 19 to 38 percent while the percentage of women in grades GS 13-15 has more than tripled, going from 5 percent to 18 percent. The percentage of women in the SES has risen even more, going from 2 percent to 11 percent. But men still hold the majority of jobs graded GS 9 and above. The average grade for women in white-collar jobs (7.3) remains 3 points below the average grade for men in white-collar jobs (10.3). Appendix 3 shows the percentage of jobs in each grade group held by women for the 22 largest Federal agencies. ----------------------------------------------------------------- Figure 3: Distribution of Federal Workforce by Grade Level Grouping, 1974 and 1990 1974 1990 SES & Equivalent 0.4 0.5 GS 13-15 14 18 GS 9-12 34 42 GS 5-8 31 30 GS 1-4 21 10 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Although the occupational and grade-level distribution of women has changed since 1974, women on the whole continue to face a dual bind with regard to their potential for rapid advancement. They occupy a minority of Professional and Administrative occupations and, where they are in those occupations, they are frequently found in the lower graded jobs. Figure 5 shows the portion of each grade group held by women for Professional and Administrative occupations, combined. The fact that women represent over half of those in the entry-level jobs (GS 5-7) in Professional and Administrative occupations means that lack of recruitment of women for these occupations is probably no longer a barrier to their advancement into upper level jobs. The important issue to address now, then, is whether once in these occupations, women are moving at the rate they should be through the pipeline, or whether their progress is hindered. ------------------------------------------------------------------ Figure 4: Representation of Women Within Each Grade Leve1 Grouping, 1974 and 1990 1974 1990 SES & Equivalent 2 11 GS 13-15 5 18 GS 9-12 19 38 GS 5-8 58 71 GS 1-4 78 76 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Figure 5: Representation of Women Within Each Grade Level Grouping, Professional and Administrative Jobs (Percent) Women Men GS 5-8 55 45 GS 9-12 41 59 GS 13-15 19 81 SES & equivalent 11 89 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Projections for the Future Women have made progress during the 1970's and 1980's, and are expected to continue to make progress, in moving into Professional and Administrative occupations and higher graded jobs. Given the movement during this timeframe, we were interested in knowing how much the distribution of women by occupational group and grade level would change in the next two decades, if current trends continue. Will any change in the relative distribution of women be rapid enough, given current trends, to make concern about underrepresentation unwarranted? Or is the movement of women within the Civil Service occurring so slowly, that left unheeded, there will be little change within the next 25 years? This kind of analysis requires examining whether promotion rates for women equal those of men, and also the effect of hiring, separation, retirement, and transfer rates among occupational categories in the Government. We asked OPM to give us CPDF data which averaged these rates, for each PATCO category, over two 3- year periods, fiscal years 1978-80 and 1988-90. Averaging over a 3- year period dilutes the effect of any aberration in the pattern of these rates that may occur in any one year. Comparison of the two 3-year periods allows us to determine if the rates have changed. In comparing data obtained for the two 3-year periods, we found--as we expected--that women are now entering Professional and Administrative occupations, both through transfers from Technical and Clerical occupations, and from the outside, at a much greater rate than they were during 1978-80. The average rate of employees leaving Government service is also considerably higher (by 30 to 50 percent) than it was then. As a result, the rates of new hire and promotion have grown as well. In other words, the opportunity for wornen to move into and up through the pipeline is significantly greater now than it was in 1978-80. To estimate the effect that current patterns of advancement will have on the distnbution of women by grade level in the Federal workforce of the future, we developed a mathematical forecasting model. Since a variety of factors can affect the distribution of women and men by grade, the model included estimates of the rates at which men and women will enter Government service, retire or resign from Government service, transfer among occupational (PATCO) categories, and rates at which they will be promoted from one grade to the next. In order to take into aacount occupational differences, separate projections were made for men and women for each grade level in each PATCO category, and then the rates were combined. In all cases the model used estimates that were based upon the actual rates at which men and women entered, retired from, and separated from the Government. It also considered the rates at which employees transfered among occupational groups, and were promoted from each grade level within each PATCO category, for 1988-90. Using this mathematical forecasting model projections were made to show the rate at which the composition of the Federal workforce can be expected to change over the next 25 years. The model assumes that these rates will remain constant over the next 25 years. It does not try to account for the effects of any major changes in the overall size or composition of the Federal workforce, as such an exercise would necessarily be based only on speculation. The projections a]so may be somewhat optimistic. For example, the number of higher graded Government jobs increased during 1988-90, as it did from 1974-90. If this growth does not continue, there may be less opportunity for the advancement of women. The model assumes that the rate of increase from 1988-90 will continue, which it may not. Nevertheless, we believe the model though imperfect, serves a useful purpose in giving us some understanding of how the grade level distribution of women relative to men will change over the next 25 years, if current trends continue.[14] Table 1 shows the results of the application of the model to white-collar, executive branch jobs. It shows that by the year 2017, women will comprise over half of the workforce, but will continue to hold considerably less than half of the jobs in grades above GS-12. Twenty-five years from now, if current trends continue, women will still hold less than one-third of senior executive jobs, and only slightly more than one-third of GS/GM 13- 15 jobs. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Table 1: Percentage of each grade beld by women, 1990 and projected 1992-2017 1990 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 GS-1 59 77 76 76 76 76 76 GS-2 62 77 77 77 77 77 77 GS-3 71 67 69 69 69 69 69 GS-4 78 76 75 75 75 75 75 GS-5 76 76 71 69 68 68 68 GS-6 78 79 77 75 73 73 73 GS-7 64 65 67 67 65 64 63 GS-8 60 59 63 65 64 61 59 GS-9 47 50 53 56 57 57 56 GS-10 29 26 35 44 50 53 53 GS-11 40 42 45 47 48 49 49 GS-12 29 31 34 37 38 40 40 GS-13 21 24 28 32 34 36 37 GS-14 16 18 24 28 31 33 35 GS-15 13 14 19 24 28 31 34 SES 11 12 16 20 24 27 30 TOTAL 48 48 48 49 49 50 50 ------------------------------------------------------------------ This is a vast improvement over the 11 percent of senior executive jobs they held in 1990 and the 2 percent they held in 1974. Nevertheless, by this measure, in 25 years, women will still be underrepresented at top management levels. As noted in the introduction to this report, comparing the percentage of women in top-level psitions to the percentage of women in the Federal workforce overall can be misleading, since women are more often found in jobs which are not in the pipeline to management. The majority of women in Government (currently 58 percent) are in Technical and Clerical occupations. As long as this is the case, the percentage of women at the management level will probably never match the percentage of women in the Federal workforce as a whole. To account for the effects of occupational differences, we also projected the percentage of women at each grade level in Professional and Administrative occupations. (See table 2.) These occupations, in general, are in the pipeline to management levels. The result showed that over half of those in the lower grades of these occupations will be women, just as is true now. Given current entry rates from outside Government, and transfer rates into Professional and Administrative positions from other occupations, the overall percentage of women in these positions will grow from about 34 percent in 1990 to 42 percent by the year 2017. But, as table 1 showed, the percentage of women in the senior executive service will be about 30 percent, still below the projected percentage of women in Professional and Administrative jobs. (See figure 6) ------------------------------------------------------------------ Table 2: Percentage of each grade held by women in Proressional and Administrative jobs, 1990 and Projected 1992-2017 1990 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 GS-5 55 54 54 54 54 54 54 GS-7 55 53 54 54 54 54 54 GS-9 54 55 55 55 56 56 56 GS-11 44 46 48 49 49 49 49 GS-12 31 33 36 39 40 40 41 GS-13 22 24 29 32 34 36 36 GS-14 16 18 24 28 32 34 35 GS-15 13 14 19 24 28 31 34 SES 11 12 16 20 24 27 30 TOTAL 34 35 38 39 41 42 42 ------------------------------------------------------------------- Figure 6: Actual and Projected Percentage of Professional and Administrative Jobs and SES Jobs Held by Women, 1990 and Projected 1992-2017 Total SES 1990 34 11 1992 35 12 1997 38 16 2002 39 20 2007 41 24 2012 42 27 2017 42 30 ------------------------------------------------------------------ An examination of promotion rates reveals why correcting the imbalance of men and women in management is such a long process. One reason is that women in Professional occupations are promoted much less often from grades GS 9 and GS 11 than men, based on data for 1988-90. While an average of 44 percent of men in GS 9 jobs are promoted each year, only 33 percent of women in GS 9 jobs are. Similarly, 21 percent of men in GS 11 jobs are promoted each year, versus only 15 percent of women. Thus, men are promoted at a rate nearly 33 percent greater than women at the GS 9 level, and 44 percent greater than women at the GS 11 level. Men had the same advantage at these two grade levels during the other period examined, 1978-80. The difference in promotion rates at grades GS 9 and GS 11 is especially important for several reasons. First, these two grade levels account for a significant part (one-third) of the Professional workforce. Second, the difference in promotion rates at these grade levels has a dramatic effect on the distribution of women at higher grades in that these grade levels represent a gateway to higher graded jobs. Fifty-eight percent of new hires enter Professional occupations at or below the GS 9 level, and 75 percent of new hires enter at or below GS 11, and all of these new hires, except those entering at GS 11 must be promoted to the GS 9 and/or GS 11 levels before they can be promoted into supervisory and management jobs. Furthermore, even though promotion rates for women from grades above GS 11 in Professional occupations are approximately the same as for men, the number of women eligible for promotion to higher grades has already been reduced by the time they reach grade GS 12. Another reason for the slow progression of women is that promotion rates for both men and women are much lower in higher graded jobs than in lower graded ones. For example, on average, only about 1 in 8 GS 12 employees of either sex is promoted each year, and 1 in 100 GS 15 employees. As a result, it typically takes many years for an employee, whether male or female, to progress from the GS 12 level to more senior positions. The model then, shows the same pattern as the data from 1974 and 1990 presented in tables 1 and 2. Women will continue to move into Professional and Administrative occupations and into higher graded jobs. But progress is slow, and, if current trends continue, women will continue to be underrepresented in upper level jobs in 2017.